The ACT Government’s proposed “Missing Middle” housing reforms are being promoted as one of the biggest planning changes since self-government, with claims they could help deliver up to 30,000 new homes across Canberra by 2030. The reforms would allow more duplexes, terraces, townhouses and low-rise developments in many suburban areas traditionally limited to single homes.

Planning Minister Chris Steel has repeatedly stated the reforms are intended to increase housing choice and support affordability, while also making better use of existing infrastructure and reducing urban sprawl. However, the Minister has also acknowledged that the transformation of Canberra suburbs “will occur over many decades” and that not every street or block will suddenly redevelop.

That point is important.

Much of the public discussion around the reforms has centred on the headline figure of “30,000 homes”, but many in the industry believe this figure risks creating unrealistic expectations about how quickly supply could increase or whether it will meaningfully improve affordability in the short term.

Industry groups and planning professionals have broadly supported increasing housing diversity, but several have also raised serious concerns about feasibility, infrastructure and taxation settings. Reports in both the The Canberra Times and Region Canberra (formerly RiotACT) highlighted concerns that current Lease Variation Charges (LVCs), development costs, approval delays and infrastructure constraints may continue to limit redevelopment activity.

Urban planning consultant David Shearer from SPACELAB stated that without major reform to LVCs, “the missing middle will stay missing”, arguing current taxation settings are working against the Government’s stated objectives.

Even supporters of the reforms acknowledge the changes alone are not a silver bullet. The said zoning reform by itself would not be enough without removing planning friction, reducing delays and improving development viability.

The reality is that simply changing zoning does not automatically create housing supply. Development only occurs when projects are financially viable, when builders and developers are prepared to take on risk, and when buyers can still afford the finished product. Rising construction costs, higher interest rates, labour shortages and taxation changes affecting property investment are all significant factors that continue to impact supply.

There is also a broader question around whether increasing density in established suburbs will genuinely improve affordability or simply increase land values and redevelopment pressure in selected areas.

Canberra does need more housing choice and smarter long-term planning. However, the public should be cautious about assuming announcements of “30,000 new homes” mean 30,000 affordable homes will suddenly appear. Even the Government has indicated these reforms are expected to unfold gradually over decades, not overnight.