Canberra is expected to be home to almost 700,000 people by 2050 and more than 800,000 by 2065. From a population of approximately 482,000 at the end of 2024, that means accommodating another 319,000 residents over the next 40 years.

The ACT Government has committed to enabling 30,000 additional homes by 2030. The Government’s preferred strategy is for approximately 70 per cent of new housing to be delivered within the existing urban footprint, with the remaining 30 per cent coming from greenfield development.

Urban infill will be an important part of the solution—but it cannot be the only solution.

If Canberra is serious about preserving housing choice, maintaining an adequate supply of family homes and preventing detached housing from becoming a privilege available only to the wealthy, suitable parts of the Western Edge should remain under consideration.

Canberra still needs greenfield housing

The Western Edge Investigation Area covers approximately 9,800 hectares between Belconnen, Molonglo Valley, Weston Creek, Kambah and the Murrumbidgee River.

It is not proposed that all this land be developed. The investigation is intended to identify areas suitable for conservation, environmental offsets, rural activities, infrastructure and potential urban development.

That distinction is important. Supporting development of the Western Edge does not mean supporting indiscriminate suburban sprawl. It means identifying less environmentally sensitive areas where well-designed communities could be built while permanently protecting land with the highest ecological and cultural value.

Former ACT planning minister Mick Gentleman expressly identified the Western Edge as part of Canberra’s possible greenfield future. When preliminary studies were released in 2022, he said the Government’s target was for 70 per cent of housing to be built within the existing urban area and 30 per cent on greenfield sites “like those along the western edge of Canberra”. Canberra Daily

The current Government has not approved development but continues to fund ecological, economic, infrastructure and social investigations. Its February 2026 progress report confirmed that potential urban and other uses remain under examination. ACT Government progress report

Housing choice is being lost

The argument for opening suitable new land is not simply about producing a larger number of dwellings. It is about what type of housing Canberra produces.

Apartments, terraces and townhouses will meet the needs of many buyers. However, they are not a direct substitute for detached homes required by families wanting bedrooms, private outdoor space, pets, storage and room for children.

Research released by the Property Council of Australia found that detached houses in the Canberra suburbs it examined were unaffordable for every essential-worker household modelled—even dual-income households earning above-average incomes.

Property Council ACT and Capital Region Executive Director Ashlee Berry said the results confirmed that detached housing was no longer affordable for any of the essential-worker households studied. Property Council research

The Property Council has welcomed the Government’s expanded land-release pipeline, while the Housing Industry Association has consistently argued that adequate greenfield land supply is necessary alongside infill reform. Neither organisation has formally endorsed Western Edge development specifically, but their housing-supply arguments directly support keeping viable greenfield options available.

Restricting Canberra’s future supply almost entirely to infill would not remove demand for detached houses. It would simply make the diminishing number of existing houses and building blocks more expensive.

Why the Western Edge warrants consideration

The Western Edge has several strategic advantages.

It adjoins existing urban areas rather than creating an entirely isolated satellite city. Parts of it could connect with Molonglo Valley, Weston Creek, Belconnen and Tuggeranong. Existing corridors such as Uriarra Road could potentially form part of a broader transport network, although substantial upgrades would be required.

Development could also be staged over several decades, allowing infrastructure and services to be delivered progressively.

The preliminary infrastructure assessment identified significant challenges involving roads, public transport, electricity, water, sewerage and transmission infrastructure. These are real constraints—but they are matters to be costed and planned, not automatic reasons to abandon the investigation. Western Edge infrastructure assessment

A properly master-planned Western Edge could include:

• A mixture of detached houses, terraces, townhouses and apartments.

• Land specifically reserved for first-home buyers and affordable housing.

• Schools, shops, healthcare and recreation planned from the beginning.

• Public and active-transport corridors protected before blocks are sold.

• Wide conservation corridors and permanent protection for sensitive habitats.

• Bushfire-resilient design and substantial asset-protection zones.

• Water-sensitive design and renewable-energy infrastructure.

This would be preferable to allowing housing shortages to force growth across the NSW border without coordinated transport and infrastructure planning.

Who supports greater land supply?

Direct public endorsements of Western Edge housing remain limited, partly because the Government has not released a development plan on which organisations can take a definitive position.

However, support for the underlying case comes from several directions:

• The ACT Government continues to investigate possible urban development rather than ruling it out.

• Former planning minister Mick Gentleman specifically referred to the Western Edge as a potential source of greenfield housing.

• The Canberra Liberals have historically advocated faster land release and a larger supply of standalone homes and townhouses.

• The Property Council supports a strong and reliable land pipeline and says Canberra’s private sector must be central to delivering the homes required.

• The Housing Industry Association argues that the housing target requires both infill reform and continuing greenfield supply.

These groups do not all agree on the precise location or form of development, but they share a recognition that housing targets cannot be achieved through planning announcements alone. Land must be economically feasible, serviced and capable of producing homes people want.

What are the alternatives?

Several alternatives have been proposed, but each involves its own compromises.

More infill development: The Government’s Missing Middle reforms allow more terraces, townhouses and low-rise apartments in established suburbs. This will add housing but may also create pressure on roads, schools, parking, trees and ageing infrastructure. It will not recreate an adequate supply of detached blocks.

Kowen Forest: The Canberra Liberals proposed investigating a new city in Kowen capable of accommodating up to 100,000 homes by 2050. Its supporters argued that Kowen is largely plantation forest and could be connected to Canberra and Queanbeyan. Critics pointed to its separation from existing employment centres, infrastructure cost and the loss of recreational forest. Canberra Times report

Growth across the NSW border: Yass Valley, Queanbeyan, Googong and areas towards Bungendore could absorb more regional growth. However, this risks producing longer commutes while NSW councils carry local infrastructure costs and the ACT retains much of the employment and economic benefit.

Preserving the entire Western Edge: Senator David Pocock and conservation groups have proposed protecting the whole area through conservation, agriculture, ecological restoration, First Nations management and ecotourism. David Pocock’s alternative vision

This would deliver environmental benefits, but it does not answer where Canberra will provide the equivalent housing—particularly detached and family housing—that would otherwise have been accommodated there.

A balanced way forward

Canberra does not need to choose between developing all 9,800 hectares and protecting every hectare from any urban use.

The sensible approach is to complete the scientific studies, permanently protect the most important habitats and cultural areas, and identify whether lower-value, less-constrained portions can support compact, well-serviced communities.

If the Western Edge is ruled out, the Government should be required to identify a credible replacement capable of delivering a comparable number and range of homes—and disclose the infrastructure, environmental and affordability consequences of that alternative.

Canberra cannot promise population growth, housing affordability, environmental protection and housing choice without making difficult land-use decisions. Carefully planned development of suitable sections of the Western Edge may be one of the few options capable of balancing those competing needs.